Designing spatially cohesive nature reserves with backup coverage     

Eric Delmelle  Michael R. Desjardins  Jing Deng 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(12):2505-2523

Natural habitats continue to dwindle due to a variety of natural and human-induced stressors. In response, sufficient land must be set aside for conservation to preserve long-term biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a bi-objective optimization model to form spatially cohesive nature reserves by minimizing the distance from habitat patches to the center of their reserve, while simultaneously maximizing the ecological condition of the patches set aside for preservation. Our model can accommodate multiple reserves which, combined with a minimum separation distance requirement, enforces backup coverage to mitigate the possible effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. The model fully capitalizes on GIS functionalities to extract information on spatial relationships and visualize optimization results. Given the complexity of the separation constraint, we propose a genetic algorithm (GA) and a two-phase heuristic where the GA solves the selection of the reserves, while a solver attempts to optimize the allocation of patches to the selected reserves. The behavior of our model and its sensitivity to the parameters are illustrated on a simulated data set, while its real-world problem-solving capabilities are demonstrated on a case study in New Hampshire. Our model provides an alternative modeling tool for conservation planning, particularly when backup reserves are desired.  相似文献   

Circumstellar molecular line absorption and emission in the optical spectra of post-AGB stars     

Eric J. Bakker  Henny J. G. L. M. Lamers  L. B. F. M. Waters  Ton Schoenmaker 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):335-338

We present preliminary results obtained with the European Observation Network. This network consists of 9 observatories in the Czech Republic, Germany and Bulgaria and has been involved in the BACODINE activities since April 1, 1994. We also discuss related problems such as the background of unknown variable stars and suggest a strategy for work in this area.  相似文献   

On the condition number of covariance matrices in kriging, estimation, and simulation of random fields   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rachid Ababou  Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou  Eric F. Wood 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(1):99-133

The numerical stability of linear systems arising in kriging, estimation, and simulation of random fields, is studied analytically and numerically. In the state-space formulation of kriging, as developed here, the stability of the kriging system depends on the condition number of the prior, stationary covariance matrix. The same is true for conditional random field generation by the superposition method, which is based on kriging, and the multivariate Gaussian method, which requires factoring a covariance matrix. A large condition number corresponds to an ill-conditioned, numerically unstable system. In the case of stationary covariance matrices and uniform grids, as occurs in kriging of uniformly sampled data, the degree of ill-conditioning generally increases indefinitely with sampling density and, to a limit, with domain size. The precise behavior is, however, highly sensitive to the underlying covariance model. Detailed analytical and numerical results are given for five one-dimensional covariance models: (1) hole-exponential, (2) exponential, (3) linear-exponential, (4) hole-Gaussian, and (5) Gaussian. This list reflects an approximate ranking of the models, from best to worst conditioned. The methods developed in this work can be used to analyze other covariance models. Examples of such representative analyses, conducted in this work, include the spherical and periodic hole-effect (hole-sinusoidal) covariance models. The effect of small-scale variability (nugget) is addressed and extensions to irregular sampling schemes and higher dimensional spaces are discussed.  相似文献   

Evolution and petroleum geology of Amlia and Amukta intra-arc summit basins, Aleutian Ridge     

Eric L. Geist  Jonathan R. Childs  David W. Scholl 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1987,4(4)

Amlia and Amukta Basins are the largest of many intra-arc basins formed in late Cenozoic time along the crest of the Aleutian Arc. Both basins are grabens filled with 2–5 km of arc-derived sediment. A complex system of normal faults deformed the basinal strata. Although initial deposits of late Micocene age may be non-marine in origin, by early Pliocene time, most of the basinfill consisted of pelagic and hemipelagic debris and terrigenous turbidite deposits derived from wavebase and subaerial erosion of the arc's crestal areas. Late Cenozoic volcanism along the arc commenced during or shortly after initial subsidence and greatly contributed to active deposition in Amlia and Amukta Basins.Two groups of normal faults occur: major boundary faults common to both basins and ‘intra-basin’ faults that arise primarily from arc-parallel extension of the arc. The most significant boundary fault, Amlia-Amukta fault, is a south-dipping growth fault striking parallel to the trend of the arc. Displacement across this fault forms a large half-graben that is separated into the two depocentres of Amlia and Amukta Basins by the formation of a late Cenozoic volcanic centre, Seguam Island. Faults of the second group reflect regional deformation of the arc and offset the basement floor as well as the overlying basinal section. Intra-basin faults in Amlia Basin are predominantly aligned normal to the trend of the arc, thereby indicating arc-parallel extension. Those in Amukta basin are aligned in multiple orientations and probably indicate a more complex mechanism of faulting. Displacement across intra-basin faults is attributed to tectonic subsidence of the massif, aided by depositional loading within the basins. In addition, most intra-basin faults are listric and are associated with high growth rates.Although, the hydrocarbon potential of Amlia and Amukta Basins is difficult to assess based on existing data, regional considerations imply that an adequate thermal history conducive to hydrocarbon generation has prevailed during the past 6-5 my. The possibility for source rocks existing in the lower sections of the basins is suggested by exposures of middle and upper Miocene carbonaceous mudstone on nearby Atka Island and the implication that euxinic conditions may have prevailed during the initial formation of the basins. Large structures have evolved to trap migrating hydrocarbons, but questions remain concerning the preservation of primary porosity in a sedimentary section rich in reactive volcaniclastic debris.  相似文献   

Estimation of Mining Project Values Through Real Option Valuation Using a Combination of Hedging Strategy and a Mean Reversion Commodity Price     

Md. Aminul Haque  Erkan Topal  Eric Lilford 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(4):459-471

Cash flows generated from mining projects are typically highly volatile and significantly influenced by a number of exogenous factors including commodity price as one of the most influential uncertainties. In addition, mining projects are complex and many of their executed investment decisions are irreversible. Therefore, management needs to address this potential risk exposure before making an investment decision. Due to the deterioration and fluctuation of mineral commodity prices for a successful mining project acquisition or development, an important and appropriate investment strategy should include a hedging strategy for reducing potential losses suffered by a company. The discounted cash flow methods, which are commonly used to calculate mining project values, often fail to respond to this identified economic uncertainty and also to incorporate de-risking hedging strategies. Therefore, this study approximates the numerical value or value ranges of a mining project considering the combination of a mean reverting commodity price and hedging strategies using continuous time modeling. A novel time-dependent partial differential equation has been proposed using a continuous time, mean reverting model, and hedging strategy to approximate the mining project value. Application of a new real options valuation technique demonstrated its superiority by providing the advantage of mitigating financial losses and procuring financial gains. In this study, some key results are deferral option and expansion option enhanced the maximum values of the project which are, respectively, 2.51 % and 4.4 % compared to the base case. Furthermore, the country risk has a great impact on project values, as when we considered the country risk premium is zero in our model, the project value increases up to 0.97 %.  相似文献   

Mineral precipitation rates during the complete evaporation of the Merouane Chott ephemeral lake     

Messaoud Hacini  Eric H. Oelkers 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(6):1583-1597

The Merouane Chott, located in southeastern Algeria, is an ideal natural system for studying mineral dissolution and precipitation rates because it (1) undergoes annual cycles of filling and complete evaporation, and (2) has a simple, well defined hydrology. The major element concentrations of Merouane Chott lake waters were measured weekly from January to June 2003. These concentrations are used together with estimates of the Chott lake volume and infiltration rates to calculate the temporal evolution of the total mass of these major elements. Element precipitation rates are generated by dividing the first derivative of total mass of each element with respect to time by the Chott surface area. Mass balance considerations yield precipitation rate estimates for halite, calcite, and gypsum during the complete evaporation of the lake. These rates are compared with the saturation indexes of these minerals to deduce the degree to which they are consistent with laboratory measured rates available in the literature.  相似文献   

Isotopic studies of leaf water. Part 2: Between-age isotopic variations in pine needles     

Yong Shu  Eric S. Posmentier  Matthew P. Ayres  Leslie J. Sonder 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(21):5189-5200

We studied between-age oxygen and hydrogen isotopic variations of two pine species, red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait) and white pine (Pinus strobus L.), with particular attention paid to variations associated with needle maturity. The 2D model by Shu et al. (this volume) was applied to simulate oxygen isotopic ratios of the pine needles; calculated results were compared with data collected from trees in the Hanover, NH area. The calculations indicate that the mechanism most responsible for age-dependent isotopic variations is the variation in transpiration rate along the needle. Because stomata mature progressively from needle tip to needle base, young needles transpire most of their water near the tip. Mature needles, on the other hand, transpire water more evenly along their lengths. We cannot successfully simulate hydrogen isotopic variations, and it remains to be investigated what mechanism or physical process is not included in the model that affects hydrogen isotopic compositions in leaf water.  相似文献   

Relationship between oriental migratory locust plague and soil moisture extracted from MODIS data     

Zhenbo Liu  Xuezheng Shi  Eric Warner  Yunjian Ge  Dongsheng Yu  Shaoxiang Ni  Hongjie Wang 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2008

Locust plagues have been the source of some of the most severe natural disasters in human history. Soil moisture content is among the most important of the numerous factors influencing plague onset and severity. This paper describes a study initiated in three pilot locust plague monitoring regions, i.e., Huangzao, Yangguanzhuang, and Tengnan in Huanghua county, Hebei province, China, to examine the impact of soil moisture status on oriental migratory locust [Locusta migratoria manilensis (L.) Meyen] plague breakout as related to the life cycle, oviposition in autumn, survival in winter, and incubation in summer. Thirty-nine temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) data sets, which represent soil moisture content, were extracted from MODIS remote sensing images for two representative time periods: a severe locust plague breakout year (2001–2002) and a slight plague year (2003–2004). TVDI values demonstrated distinctive soil moisture status differences between the 2 years concerned. Soil moisture conditions in the severe plague year were shown to be lower than those in slight plague year. In all three pilot regions, average TVDI value in the severe plague year was 0.07 higher than that in slight plague year, and monthly TVDI values in locust oviposition period (September and October) and incubation period (March, April and May) were higher than their corresponding monthly figures in slight plague year. No remarkable TVDI differences were found in other months during the locust life cycle between the 2 years. TVDI values for September and October (2001), March, April and May (2002) were 0.11, 0.08, 0.16, 0.11 and 0.16 higher than their corresponding monthly figures in 2003–2004 period, respectively.  相似文献   

Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Hong Kong Air Quality     

Eric C.H.CHOW  Richard C.Y.LI  Wen ZHOU 《大气科学进展》2018,35(9):1177-1188

Tropical cyclones(TCs) constitute one of the major atmospheric activities affecting the air quality of the Pearl River Delta region. In this study, the impact of TCs on air quality in Hong Kong during the TC active season(July–October) from 2000 to 2015 is investigated. It is found that 57.5% of days with concentration of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter 10 μm(PM_(10)) above the 90th percentile are related to TC activity. TCs in three regions, located to the east, southeast, and southwest of Hong Kong, have obvious impacts on pollutant concentration. When TCs are located east of Hong Kong near Taiwan, 65.5%/38.7% of the days have high or extremely high PM_(10)/ozone(O_3) levels, which are associated with northerly wind, sinking motion, and relatively low precipitation. When TCs are located southeast of Hong Kong, 48.1%/58.2% of the days have high pollution levels, associated mainly with continental air mass transport. When TCs are south or west of Hong Kong, only 20.8%/16.9% of the days have high PM_(10)/O_3 levels, and the air quality in Hong Kong is generally good or normal due to TC-associated precipitation, oceanic air mass transport, and an enhanced rising motion. The higher chance of high O_3 days when TCs are present between Hong Kong and Taiwan, possibly due to lower-than-normal precipitation along the east coast of China under TC circulation. The results in this study highlight the important influence of TC position and associated atmospheric circulations on the air quality in Hong Kong.  相似文献   

Combining Wind-Tunnel and Field Measurements of Street-Canyon Flow via Stochastic Estimation     

Laurent Perret  Karin Blackman  Eric Savory 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2016,161(3):491-517

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